Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Ryan Tannehill from EV Insight

Ryan TannehillPassing Yards

Right now, Ryan Tannehill’s passing yards prop is set at 223.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 223.5 (-110) after it opened @ 217.5 (-115).

Pros

The Titans are a 4-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 60.2 plays per game.
Ryan Tannehill’s throwing efficiency has gotten a boost this season, totaling 8.29 yards-per-target compared to a measly 7.17 figure last season.
The Indianapolis Colts safeties rank as the 5th-worst group of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Tennessee Titans have faced a stacked the box on 26.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans to be the 8th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Titans to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Ryan Tannehill to attempt 31.1 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-least of all QBs.
The Tennessee Titans O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
213
Passing Yards