Week 4 NFL Moneyline Underdogs

It was an 0-2 week for our moneyline underdogs in Week 3, as both the Bills and Eagles won handily as road favorites. There were only three underdogs that won outright, all 8-point or more betting underdogs. The Jaguars and Colts both shocked on the road, while the 12.5-point underdog Cardinals pulled what could be the upset of the season over the Cowboys. 

Again, these are high-risk plays for a reason. They will not hit at a normal rate. However, when they do hit, we often get enough of a payout to keep our bankroll replenished. We enter Week 4 looking to get back in the red with some high-reward plays. 

Each week I will give you my favorite moneyline underdogs who I believe have the best chance to pull the outright upset. There won’t be a fixed number of games. It could be one, two, or even three underdogs I like for the week.

Let’s take a look at my favorite moneyline underdogs for Week 4 of the 2023 season.

Week 4 NFL Moneyline Underdog Picks

Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Cleveland

+125, Bet365

We are going right back to Lamar Jackson as a road underdog in Week 4, just two weeks removed from a +160 moneyline cash at Cincinnati. With Jackson as the quarterback, Baltimore is now 8-1 ATS as a road underdog with Jackson under center, including four outright wins in the last five scenarios. John Harbaugh is also great as a division underdog of a touchdown or less, going 12-6-1 ATS with eight outright wins. (BetLabs) 

Since 2003, Cleveland is just 6-14 (30%) ATS as a home favorite, and just 2-5 in those situations under Kevin Stefanski. This is a bet on John Harbaugh, a Ravens defense that ranks close to Cleveland’s dominance in DVOA, and a Ravens offense that has been vastly more efficient than the Browns through three games. Cleveland will feel the loss of Nick Chubb in this AFC North matchup. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.25 Units

Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

+120, FanDuel Sportsbook

One game does not solve all the problems for Cincinnati. 

Quarterback Joe Burrow still does not look healthy, and the Bengals’ 19-16 home victory over the Rams was hardly impressive. Cincinnati still cannot run the ball efficiently, averaging a putrid 2.9 yards per carry against the Rams. The Bengals offensive line continued to struggle, allowing two sacks to a Rams pass rush that is among the worst in the league. 

Tennessee (1-2) has struggled this season, but the Titans have been historically tough at home under Mike Vrabel. The Titans are 10-6 ATS as home underdogs with nine outright wins. Tennessee’s pass rush is averaging 3.3 sacks per game, which should disrupt the passing attack with a limited Burrow under center. I still think there is a chance Burrow goes on injured reserve this week, which gives us great early-week value on this line. 

Look for Tennessee running back Derrick Henry to finally get going against a Bengals rush defense that entered Week 3 ranked 28th in DVOA. The Bengals need to score to win, and a 43-point game total puts them precariously around the 20-point team total. Under Zac Taylor, Cincinnati has struggled if they can’t eclipse that number. 

Risk: 1 Unit to Win 1.2 Units