Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Raheem MostertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Broncos
Right now, Raheem Mostert’s rushing yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Raheem Mostert to accrue 16.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the league since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.
- Raheem Mostert has averaged 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in the NFL among running backs (82nd percentile).
- Raheem Mostert’s ground effectiveness has gotten better this season, accumulating 5.83 yards-per-carry compared to just 4.78 figure last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 11th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 40.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have run for the 10th-least yards in football (just 111 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Rushing Yards
71
Rushing Yards
