Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-114/-114).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-114) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 8th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 44.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Breece Hall has grinded out 65.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (93rd percentile).
Cons
- The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- The New England Patriots defense has produced the 4th-best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, yielding just 4.20 yards-per-carry.
- The New England Patriots safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards
54
Rushing Yards
