Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Zach ErtzReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Cowboys
Right now, Zach Ertz’s receiving yards prop is set at 33.5 yards (-112/-117).
The public has bet the OVER up to 33.5 (-112) after it opened @ 31.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB Joshua Dobbs in this game, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cardinals are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals as the 6th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Arizona Cardinals have run the 5th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 61.6 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Arizona Cardinals will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- Zach Ertz’s receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 70.8% to 62.1%.
- Zach Ertz’s pass-game efficiency has declined this season, accumulating a mere 3.87 yards-per-target compared to a 6.14 figure last season.
- Zach Ertz’s skills in generating extra yardage have worsened this season, notching just 2.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.57 mark last season.
- The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.00 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
38
Receiving Yards
38
Receiving Yards
