Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Mark AndrewsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Ravens vs. Colts
Right now, Mark Andrews’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 52.5 (-125) after it opened @ 52.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run among all games this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Mark Andrews has run a route on 93.3% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 100th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Mark Andrews to earn 7.5 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
- Mark Andrews has put up a whopping 77.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 100th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Ravens are a giant 7.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the league.
- Mark Andrews’s sure-handedness have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 65.7% to 62.1%.
- Mark Andrews’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, notching just 6.05 yards-per-target vs a 7.76 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
59
Receiving Yards
59
Receiving Yards
