Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Hunter HenryReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Hunter Henry’s receiving yards prop is set at 31.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 31.5 (-110) after it opened @ 32.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Patriots have been the 5th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 66.5% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Hunter Henry has run a route on 75.0% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to total 5.1 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- The New York Jets defense has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (54.0) versus TEs since the start of last season.
Cons
- The New England Patriots have called the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.6 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- Hunter Henry’s talent in picking up extra yardage have worsened this season, averaging a mere 3.36 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 4.85 mark last season.
- The New York Jets linebackers project as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
