Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Patriots
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-110) after it opened @ 48.5 (-110).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be starting backup QB Zach Wilson in this week’s game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 36.6 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to notch 8.4 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- Garrett Wilson has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, posting a Target Share of 25.4% since the start of last season, which places him in the 89th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The New York Jets will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 8th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the weakest wideouts in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while ranking in the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
