Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Durham SmytheReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Broncos
Right now, Durham Smythe’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 27.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Durham Smythe to be much more involved in his team’s passing attack this week (12.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.9% in games he has played).
- The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 8th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (52.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has shown poor efficiency vs. TEs since the start of last season, conceding 8.06 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-most in the NFL.
- The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 3rd-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
- Durham Smythe’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 78.3% to 71.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
30
Receiving Yards
30
Receiving Yards
