Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
David NjokuReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Browns vs. Titans
Right now, David Njoku’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-134/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (+102) after it opened @ 31.5 (-113).
Pros
- The Cleveland Browns have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 62.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.9 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects David Njoku to notch 4.5 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
- David Njoku has been an integral part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 19.1% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 94th percentile among TEs.
- David Njoku has been among the leading pass-game tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 49.0 yards per game while grading out in the 96th percentile.
Cons
- The Browns are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 52.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the least plays run out of all the games this week at 122.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Projection
THE BLITZ
32
Receiving Yards
32
Receiving Yards
