Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Cole KmetReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chiefs vs. Bears
Right now, Cole Kmet’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 30.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears are a huge 12.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Cole Kmet to accumulate 5.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among TEs.
- Cole Kmet has been an integral part of his team’s pass game, posting a Target Share of 20.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 97th percentile among tight ends.
- Cole Kmet has posted a colossal 33.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per snap.
- Cole Kmet’s receiving reliability have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.3% to 68.8%.
- Cole Kmet’s pass-catching efficiency has worsened this season, notching just 6.84 yards-per-target vs a 8.00 mark last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 10th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
36
Receiving Yards
36
Receiving Yards
