Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris GodwinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Right now, Chris Godwin’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-105) after it opened @ 54.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buccaneers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 63.7 plays per game.
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Chris Godwin has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 69.0 yards per game while grading out in the 90th percentile.
Cons
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Dave Canales, and The leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 8.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the least pass-centric offense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.0% pass rate.
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the league (60.9%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (60.9%).
- The Philadelphia Eagles pass defense has shown good efficiency versus wide receivers since the start of last season, yielding 7.46 yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
