Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Trevor LawrencePassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Trevor Lawrence’s passing yards prop is set at 246.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 246.5 (-110) after it opened @ 253.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Trevor Lawrence to attempt 35.7 passes this week, on average: the 10th-most of all QBs.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
- The Houston Texans defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.74 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-most in football.
Cons
- The Jaguars are a heavy 7.5-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
- Trevor Lawrence’s throwing precision has worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 66.5% to 61.2%.
- Trevor Lawrence’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 6.18 yards-per-target vs a 7.28 mark last year.
- Opposing QBs have passed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 203.0 per game) versus the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
236
Passing Yards
236
Passing Yards
