Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jalen HurtsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Right now, Jalen Hurts’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 238.5 (-115) after it opened @ 241.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line ranks as the best in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Jalen Hurts’s throwing accuracy has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 66.0% to 72.5%.
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects Jalen Hurts to attempt 31.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 9th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 7.19 yards-per-target: the 6th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
221
Passing Yards
221
Passing Yards
