Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jonathan TaylorRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Jonathan Taylor’s rushing yards prop is set at 100.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 100.5 (-110) after it opened @ 97.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.3 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 9th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to total 22.6 rush attempts in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among running backs.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
Projection
THE BLITZ
115
Rushing Yards
115
Rushing Yards
