Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darrell HendersonRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Rams vs. Falcons
Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 60.5 (-130) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to notch 15.5 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
- Darrell Henderson has garnered 57.8% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
- The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in run blocking.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.0% run rate.
- The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Darrell Henderson has been among the worst running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.51 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 13th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Rams have gone for it on 4th down just 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards
67
Rushing Yards
