Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Darrell Henderson from EV Insight

Darrell HendersonRushing Yards

Right now, Darrell Henderson’s rushing yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 60.5 (-130) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).

Pros

The Rams are a big 10.5-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Rams to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Darrell Henderson to notch 15.5 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Darrell Henderson has garnered 57.8% of his team’s carries since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in run blocking.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams to be the 7th-least run-oriented team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 36.0% run rate.
The Los Angeles Rams have run the 10th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging just 61.4 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Darrell Henderson has been among the worst running backs in football at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a lowly 2.51 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 13th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams have gone for it on 4th down just 14.7% of the time since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Rushing Yards