Week 18 Player Props: Rushing Yards for James Cook from EV Insight

James CookRushing Yards

Right now, James Cook’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-139/+108).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+108) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).

Pros

With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The leading projections forecast James Cook to accumulate 14.6 carries in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs.
After making up 19.1% of his team’s run game usage last season, James Cook has been more involved in the ground game this season, currently taking on 50.2%.
James Cook’s 67.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season marks an impressive gain in his rushing skills over last season’s 32.0 mark.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 10th-least run-focused offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.6% run rate.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football last year at opening holes for runners.
James Cook’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 4.78 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 5.79 rate last season.
Opposing offenses have run for the 6th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 97.0 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
68
Rushing Yards