NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Tyreek HillReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (+100/-129).
The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (+100) after it opened @ 94.5 (-113).
Pros
- This week’s line indicates a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.6% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
- The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to garner 12.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
- With a sizeable 31.8% Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill places as one of the wideouts with the most usage in football.
- Tyreek Hill’s 109.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a meaningful gain in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 92.0 mark.
Cons
- The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.14 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
- After accruing 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has been a disappointment this season, now averaging 113.0 per game.
- The Miami offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
- This year, the fierce Bills pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a meager 3.1 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
116
Receiving Yards
116
Receiving Yards
