Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tyreek Hill from EV Insight

Tyreek HillReceiving Yards

Right now, Tyreek Hill’s receiving yards prop is set at 99.5 yards (+100/-129).

The public has bet the OVER up to 99.5 (+100) after it opened @ 94.5 (-113).

Pros

This week’s line indicates a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.6% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects Tyreek Hill to garner 12.9 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
With a sizeable 31.8% Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Tyreek Hill places as one of the wideouts with the most usage in football.
Tyreek Hill’s 109.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season represents a meaningful gain in his pass-catching talent over last season’s 92.0 mark.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.14 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
After accruing 131.0 air yards per game last season, Tyreek Hill has been a disappointment this season, now averaging 113.0 per game.
The Miami offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
This year, the fierce Bills pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the league to opposing wide receivers: a meager 3.1 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
116
Receiving Yards