Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Stefon Diggs

Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards

Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 60.5 (-110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).

Pros

Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
The projections expect Stefon Diggs to garner 10.2 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.
With a remarkable 29.9% Target Rate (95th percentile) this year, Stefon Diggs places as one of the WRs with the highest volume in the league.
Stefon Diggs has totaled a staggering 105.0 air yards per game this year: 94th percentile among wideouts.
This year, the anemic Dolphins pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 70.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing wide receivers: the 2nd-highest rate in the league.

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
Stefon Diggs has put up significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (72.0) this season than he did last season (90.0).
Stefon Diggs’s possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 72.7% to 65.9%.
Stefon Diggs’s receiving effectiveness has worsened this season, totaling a measly 7.60 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 9.62 mark last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards