Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 25.5 (+100) after it opened @ 24.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will be rolling out backup quarterback Sam Howell this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 134.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 9th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Logan Thomas has gone out for fewer passes this year (68.1% Route% in games he has played) than he did last year (82.5%).
- The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Logan Thomas’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 72.2% to 65.8%.
- Logan Thomas’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling just 5.49 yards-per-target vs a 7.85 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
