Week 18 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Jerry Jeudy from EV Insight

Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards

Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to garner 7.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
Jerry Jeudy has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.3% this year, which places him in the 80th percentile among WRs.

Cons

The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
Jerry Jeudy’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 66.0%.
Jerry Jeudy’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, notching a measly 5.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.34 mark last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 130.0) to WRs this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards