Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Jerry JeudyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Broncos vs. Chargers
Right now, Jerry Jeudy’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the 7th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Jerry Jeudy to garner 7.9 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among wide receivers.
- Jerry Jeudy has been heavily involved in his team’s passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 21.3% this year, which places him in the 80th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Broncos are a 6.5-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
- Jerry Jeudy’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 66.0%.
- Jerry Jeudy’s ability to pick up extra yardage has tailed off this season, notching a measly 5.29 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 6.34 mark last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 4th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 130.0) to WRs this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
