Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Jayden ReedReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 18
Packers vs. Bears
Right now, Jayden Reed’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 53.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Packers to pass on 58.9% of their downs: the 9th-greatest rate among all teams this week.
- Opposing teams have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.
- In this week’s contest, Jayden Reed is projected by the predictive model to position himself in the 87th percentile when it comes to WRs with 7.6 targets.
- When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Chicago’s collection of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the 2nd-worst in football.
Cons
- With a 3-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week’s contest, suggesting more of a focus on rushing than their typical game plan.
- Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 126.5 plays on offense called: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.
- The Packers have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 56.9 plays per game.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wideouts this year, conceding 7.82 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Receiving Yards
58
Receiving Yards
