Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 269.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 269.5 (-110) after it opened @ 263.5 (-110).

Pros

This week’s line indicates a passing game script for the Dolphins, who are -3-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins to pass on 62.6% of their chances: the 5th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
In this contest, Tua Tagovailoa is expected by the projection model to wind up with the 5th-most pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 37.9.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 288.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season signifies a significant progression in his throwing ability over last season’s 253.0 rate.
Tua Tagovailoa’s passing accuracy has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 64.0% to 70.0%.

Cons

The predictive model expects the Miami Dolphins offense to be the 6th-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 29.14 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 34.6 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 10th-fewest in the league.
The Miami offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful influence on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Bills defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo’s unit has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
279
Passing Yards