Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 243.5 yards (-131/-104).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 243.5 (-104) after it opened @ 245.5 (-117).

Pros

Right now, the 10th-most pass-focused offense in the league (63.4% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Buffalo Bills.
Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to throw 35.4 passes in this week’s game, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive effect it has on all passing game stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Allen ranks as one of the leading passers in football this year, averaging an exceptional 255.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 78th percentile.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league against the Dolphins defense this year (73.4% Adjusted Completion%).

Cons

With a 3-point advantage, the Bills are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on rushing than their typical game plan.
The model projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 6th-most sluggish paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.47 seconds per play.
The Dolphins defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.26 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.
As it relates to safeties in pass coverage, Miami’s collection of safeties has been fantastic this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
256
Passing Yards