Week 18 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 234.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 234.5 (-110) after it opened @ 232.5 (-114).

Pros

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New Orleans Saints to pass on 59.6% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New Orleans Saints have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a whopping 61.1 plays per game.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
Derek Carr’s throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 61.4% to 66.5%.

Cons

A running game script is suggested by the Saints being a 3-point favorite in this week’s contest.
The New Orleans Saints offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in the league versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year (66.1% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the fierce Atlanta Falcons defense has conceded the 5th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a meager 4.2 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
287
Passing Yards