Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Zamir WhiteRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 17
Colts vs. Raiders
Right now, Zamir White’s rushing yards prop is set at 79.5 yards (+106/-137).
The public has bet the OVER up to 79.5 (+106) after it opened @ 71.5 (-114).
Pros
- Right now, the 7th-most run-heavy team in the NFL (42.7% context-neutralized) according to the projections is the Raiders.
- In this week’s game, Zamir White is expected by the projections to rank in the 96th percentile among RBs with 18.8 rush attempts.
- The predictive model expects Zamir White to be a more important option in his team’s rushing attack in this game (71.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (15.8% in games he has played).
- Zamir White has run for quite a few more adjusted yards per game (23.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).
- This year, the shaky Colts run defense has been torched for a whopping 135.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 5th-most in the league.
Cons
- At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Raiders are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on passing than their typical approach.
- With regard to a defense’s influence on pace, at 28.57 seconds per snap, our trusted projections expect the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-slowest in the league (context-neutralized) right now.
- The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the calm “weather” conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Rushing Yards
79
Rushing Yards
