Week 17 NFL Player Props of the Week

In this article I take you through some of my favorite NFL player props for this week’s slate. With so many important playoff implications this, we take advantage of a couple receivers looking to help their teams make the postseason. 

Curtis Samuel Over 32.5 Receiving Yards

(-110, DraftKings Sportsbook)

This season started exactly how all fantasy managers and prop bettors expected, with Curtis Samuel out-targeting Terry McLaurin in every single game with Carson Wentz under center:

• Curtis Samuel with Taylor Heinicke: 3.1 receptions, 4.3 targets, 40.6 yards/game
• Curtis Samuel with Carson Wentz: 5.6 reception, 8.3 targets, 48.4 yards/game

Myles Garrett has a 26.3% pass rush win rate, which is first among all players. Last week, Washington left Charles Leno out on an island all by himself against Nick Bosa, and it worked out about how you would expect it to (very bad). Wentz will need to get the ball out fast to avoid sacks, and Samuel has a 6.9-yard aDOT vs. McLaurin’s 13.1 and Jahan Dotson’s 13.3. With Wentz, Samuel was second in targets per route run behind Antonio Gibson, who is out for this game. Expecting plenty of checkdowns and short throws to keep Wentz upright. 

Additionally, a lot of the Heinicke offense was centered around McLaurin, and those contested catches that he’s known for. Wentz doesn’t share that same passion for the 50/50 ball; he hasn’t had a lot of success down the field this season, and there really isn’t that much chemistry there. 

DJ Chark Longest reception Over 21.5 Yards

(-110, BetMGM)

While the buy-low window has slammed shut for DJ Chark, I still like him this week at this more inflated line. We were able to bet the longest reception over 17.5 last week, but with another impressive performance, it’s been bumped up to 21.5. The good news is that Chark is playing great football and gets a fantastic matchup against the Bears. In December, Chark is second with 19.9 average yards per reception and fifth with four 25-yard passes. He’s also fifth among receivers with an average of 17.3 yards per reception on the season and fourth with a 16.3-yard aDOT (minimum 150 routes). 

Chark has gone over this number in five of nine games this season, and he has been much more involved recently. He has at least five targets, 80% route participation and 90 yards in three of his last four games, with his one miss coming in a game where the Lions sacrificed him to Sauce Gardner on the outside. When they played the Bears earlier this season, Chark was out, but Amon-Ra St. Brown had a 22-yard catch, Kalif Raymond had a 21-yard catch and Tom Kennedy had a 44-yard catch. The Bears defense has allowed 12 receivers to have catches of at least 21 yards in their last seven games. I expect Chark to clear this number multiple times this game.