Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Jaylen WarrenRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Jaylen Warren’s rushing yards prop is set at 42.5 yards (-140/+110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 42.5 (-140) after it opened @ 39.5 (-110).
Pros
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to run on 46.1% of their downs: the 6th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
- Jaylen Warren has been a much bigger part of his team’s ground game this season (32.6% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (16.3%).
- The Steelers O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league last year at opening holes for rushers.
- Jaylen Warren’s 42.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this season reflects a material progression in his rushing prowess over last season’s 23.0 rate.
- This year, the tough Cincinnati Bengals run defense has allowed a meager 4.70 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing teams: the 26th-best rate in the NFL.
Cons
- The Pittsburgh Steelers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- The projections expect the Steelers to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
- The Cincinnati Bengals defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
48
Rushing Yards
48
Rushing Yards
