Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Gus EdwardsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, Gus Edwards’s rushing yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-127) after it opened @ 38.5 (-113).
Pros
- Gus Edwards has generated 50.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (78th percentile).
Cons
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- Gus Edwards’s 41.5% snap rate this year indicates an impressive growth in his offensive usage over last year’s 26.4% mark.
- Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-fewest adjusted yards in the league (just 85.0 per game) vs. the 49ers defense this year.
- When it comes to the linebackers’ role in defending against the run, San Francisco’s group of LBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Rushing Yards
45
Rushing Yards
