Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-143/+110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+110) after it opened @ 63.5 (-115).

Pros

The model projects the Tennessee Titans as the 10th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 43.9% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Derrick Henry to earn 15.1 carries this week, on balance, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
This year, the weak Seahawks run defense has conceded a monstrous 131.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to opposing squads: the 5th-worst in football.
As it relates to the safeties’ role in defending against the run, Seattle’s group of safeties has been very bad this year, profiling as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Cons

This week’s spread indicates a passing game script for the Titans, who are -3-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Titans to run the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 61.8 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Derrick Henry to be a less important option in his team’s running game in this contest (56.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.1% in games he has played).
Derrick Henry has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (61.0) this year than he did last year (91.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
65
Rushing Yards