Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Cordarrelle Patterson from EV Insight

Cordarrelle PattersonRushing Yards

Right now, Cordarrelle Patterson’s rushing yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-110/-115).

The public has bet the OVER up to 47.5 (-110) after it opened @ 46.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Cordarrelle Patterson has received 42.3% of his team’s carries this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among running backs.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the best in the league this year in run blocking.
Cordarrelle Patterson has run for quite a few more yards per game (62.0) this year than he did last year (38.0).

Cons

The Falcons are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 122.2 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have called the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 53.6 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 3rd-least yards in football (just 86 per game) vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have gone up against a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
54
Rushing Yards