Week 16 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Christian McCaffrey from EV Insight

Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards

Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 83.5 yards (-120/-100).

The public has bet the OVER up to 83.5 (-120) after it opened @ 80.5 (-110).

Pros

This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The projections expect the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.4% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The model projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 19.2 rush attempts in this week’s contest, on balance, putting him in the 99th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The San Francisco 49ers offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in the league last year in run support.
Christian McCaffrey has rushed for substantially more adjusted yards per game (97.0) this year than he did last year (68.0).

Cons

The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
Christian McCaffrey’s 82.9% Snap% this season reflects a meaningful progression in his offensive workload over last season’s 71.5% mark.
The opposing side have rushed for the 9th-fewest adjusted yards in the NFL (just 98.0 per game) vs. the Ravens defense this year.

Projection

THE BLITZ
95
Rushing Yards