Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Zay Flowers from EV Insight

Zay FlowersReceiving Yards

Right now, Zay Flowers’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 44.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-114).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.
Zay Flowers has run a route on 93.7% of his team’s passing plays this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
The projections expect Zay Flowers to accrue 7.4 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
Zay Flowers comes in as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in a remarkable 75.3% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 94th percentile among WRs.

Cons

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency against wide receivers this year, surrendering 7.55 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-fewest in the league.
This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing wideouts: a mere 3.5 YAC.
The San Francisco cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards