Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Trey McBrideReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Bears vs. Cardinals
Right now, Trey McBride’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-129) after it opened @ 56.5 (-119).
Pros
- At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Cardinals are underdogs this week, implying more of a reliance on moving the ball through the air than their usual approach.
- The Bears defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (39.9 per game) this year.
- The predictive model expects Trey McBride to earn 9.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 100th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
- The predictive model expects Trey McBride to be a much bigger part of his offense’s passing game this week (29.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.7% in games he has played).
- Trey McBride has compiled a lot more adjusted receiving yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (29.0).
Cons
- Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cardinals to pass on 55.8% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projections to run only 63.3 total plays in this contest: the 9th-lowest number among all teams this week.
- The Arizona offensive line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- The Chicago Bears pass defense has been quite strong when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.28 yards-after-the-catch this year: the fewest in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards
67
Receiving Yards
