Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Tee Higgins from EV Insight

Tee HigginsReceiving Yards

Right now, Tee Higgins’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-118).

Pros

The Bengals may lean on the pass less this week (and call more rushes) given that they be rolling out backup quarterback Jake Browning.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bengals to pass on 60.8% of their chances: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast Tee Higgins to accumulate 8.6 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
While Tee Higgins has been responsible for 18.9% of his team’s targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Cincinnati’s passing attack in this contest at 25.5%.
After accumulating 71.0 air yards per game last year, Tee Higgins has produced significantly more this year, now sitting at 82.0 per game.

Cons

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
At the moment, the 4th-slowest paced offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Pittsburgh Steelers, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 34.1 per game) this year.
Tee Higgins’s 56.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year indicates a noteworthy reduction in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 74.0 rate.
Tee Higgins’s 57.2% Adjusted Completion Rate this season conveys a noteworthy decline in his pass-catching ability over last season’s 71.6% mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards