Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Puka NacuaReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Rams vs. Saints
Right now, Puka Nacua’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-134/+102).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (+102) after it opened @ 63.5 (-114).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
- The 6th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Rams this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).
- Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air volume, and lower ground volume.
- The leading projections forecast Puka Nacua to total 9.4 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- Puka Nacua rates as one of the top wide receivers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 81.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
Cons
- This week’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the Rams, who are favored by 4.5 points.
- This year, the tough New Orleans Saints defense has yielded a paltry 57.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing wideouts: the 3rd-best rate in the league.
- This year, the fierce New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing WRs: a meager 7.1 yards.
- The New Orleans cornerbacks rank as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
