Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Pat Freiermuth from EV Insight

Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards

Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).

Pros

The Pittsburgh Steelers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
In this week’s game, Pat Freiermuth is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (70.0) versus tight ends this year.
This year, the feeble Bengals pass defense has conceded a staggering 82.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the biggest rate in football.

Cons

The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Steelers to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
Pat Freiermuth has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
Pat Freiermuth’s 28.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a material reduction in his receiving skills over last year’s 49.0 mark.

Projection

THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards