Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Pat FreiermuthReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
Steelers vs. Bengals
Right now, Pat Freiermuth’s receiving yards prop is set at 30.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 30.5 (-110) after it opened @ 24.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Pittsburgh Steelers will be forced to utilize backup QB Mason Rudolph in this week’s contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week’s contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
- In this week’s game, Pat Freiermuth is forecasted by the projections to secure a spot in the 82nd percentile when it comes to TEs with 5.1 targets.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has conceded the most adjusted receiving yards per game in football (70.0) versus tight ends this year.
- This year, the feeble Bengals pass defense has conceded a staggering 82.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the biggest rate in football.
Cons
- The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
- The projections expect the Steelers to run the 8th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- The 6th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Steelers this year (a lowly 55.5 per game on average).
- Pat Freiermuth has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (32.0 per game) than he did last season (50.0 per game).
- Pat Freiermuth’s 28.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year indicates a material reduction in his receiving skills over last year’s 49.0 mark.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
