Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Josh Palmer from EV Insight

Josh PalmerReceiving Yards

Right now, Josh Palmer’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet the OVER up to 43.5 (-110) after it opened @ 39.5 (-110).

Pros

The Los Angeles Chargers will be forced to use backup QB Easton Stick in this contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
An extreme passing game script is suggested by the Chargers being a massive -12.5-point underdog this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Chargers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 62.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 131.5 plays on offense called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 2nd-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (71.2%) versus WRs this year (71.2%).

Cons

Josh Palmer’s receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 72.2% to 63.4%.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.24 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo’s unit has been outstanding this year, ranking as the 3rd-best in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
61
Receiving Yards