Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 49.5 yards (-120/-108).

The public has bet the OVER up to 49.5 (-120) after it opened @ 46.5 (-114).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
In this week’s contest, George Kittle is predicted by our trusted projection set to find himself in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends with 5.6 targets.
After accumulating 41.0 air yards per game last season, George Kittle has been rising this season, now sitting at 53.0 per game.
George Kittle’s 48.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 42.2.
George Kittle’s 59.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this year signifies a substantial progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year’s 49.0 rate.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The projections expect the 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
The 49ers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
48
Receiving Yards