Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George KittleReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Commanders
Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-113) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- George Kittle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, catching an impressive 76.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
- George Kittle has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging an impressive 9.06 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 87th percentile.
- George Kittle’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, accumulating 6.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 5.91 rate last season.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
- George Kittle has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (48.0 per game).
Projection
THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards
43
Receiving Yards
