Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for George Kittle from EV Insight

George KittleReceiving Yards

Right now, George Kittle’s receiving yards prop is set at 41.5 yards (-115/-113).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 41.5 (-113) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects George Kittle to garner 5.9 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
George Kittle has been among the most sure-handed receivers in football among TEs, catching an impressive 76.6% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 77th percentile.
George Kittle has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in football among tight ends, averaging an impressive 9.06 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 87th percentile.
George Kittle’s talent in grinding out extra yardage have been refined this season, accumulating 6.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 5.91 rate last season.

Cons

The 49ers are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-worst pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.07 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 3rd-least in the NFL.
George Kittle has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (35.0 per game) than he did last season (48.0 per game).

Projection

THE BLITZ
43
Receiving Yards