Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Deebo Samuel

Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards

Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-129/-106).

The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-129) after it opened @ 58.5 (-117).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
With a remarkable 89.4% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel rates among the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league.
The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel to accumulate 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
Deebo Samuel has posted far more air yards this season (46.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
Deebo Samuel’s 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 52.0 rate.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The projections expect the 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
The 49ers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards