NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Deebo SamuelReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, Deebo Samuel’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-129/-106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-129) after it opened @ 58.5 (-117).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
- With a remarkable 89.4% Route Participation Rate (88th percentile) this year, Deebo Samuel rates among the wide receivers with the highest volume in the league.
- The predictive model expects Deebo Samuel to accumulate 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
- Deebo Samuel has posted far more air yards this season (46.0 per game) than he did last season (32.0 per game).
- Deebo Samuel’s 63.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season indicates a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching proficiency over last season’s 52.0 rate.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The projections expect the 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
- The 49ers offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
