Week 16 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dawson Knox from EV Insight

Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards

Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 26.5 yards (+108/-148).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 26.5 (-148) after it opened @ 28.5 (-115).

Pros

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 70.7% pass rate.
Dawson Knox has run a route on 75.6% of his offense’s passing plays this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Dawson Knox to accumulate 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Dawson Knox has accumulated a whopping 36.0 air yards per game this year: 88th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Bills are a big 8.5-point favorite in this week’s game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 3rd-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weatherman calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in football.
Dawson Knox has notched many fewer receiving yards per game (35.0) this year than he did last year (44.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
26
Receiving Yards