Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Mac Jones from EV Insight

Mac JonesPassing Yards

Right now, Mac Jones’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-103/-133).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 205.5 (-133) after it opened @ 225.5 (-115).

Pros

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Mac Jones’s throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.9% to 64.6%.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.82 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
233
Passing Yards