Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Lamar JacksonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 217.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-110).
Pros
- At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
- The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.
- The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- Lamar Jackson’s 216.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a noteworthy improvement in his throwing proficiency over last year’s 191.0 mark.
- Lamar Jackson’s 67.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial gain in his passing accuracy over last season’s 62.9% rate.
Cons
- The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
- In this game, Lamar Jackson is expected by the model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.5.
- The 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in football.
- This year, the fierce 49ers defense has yielded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a meager 4.1 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards
215
Passing Yards
