Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Lamar Jackson from EV Insight

Lamar JacksonPassing Yards

Right now, Lamar Jackson’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 217.5 (-110) after it opened @ 219.5 (-110).

Pros

At a -6.5-point disadvantage, the Ravens are underdogs in this week’s game, suggesting more of a reliance on passing than their usual approach.
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (39.3 per game) this year.
The Baltimore offensive line profiles as the best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Lamar Jackson’s 216.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year illustrates a noteworthy improvement in his throwing proficiency over last year’s 191.0 mark.
Lamar Jackson’s 67.4% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial gain in his passing accuracy over last season’s 62.9% rate.

Cons

The projections expect the Baltimore Ravens to be the 10th-least pass-focused offense on the slate this week with a 57.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Ravens are expected by the predictive model to run just 62.6 offensive plays in this game: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
In this game, Lamar Jackson is expected by the model to wind up with the 7th-fewest pass attempts among all QBs with 32.5.
The 49ers pass defense has displayed good efficiency this year, yielding 6.79 adjusted yards-per-target: the 5th-fewest in football.
This year, the fierce 49ers defense has yielded the 2nd-least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing squads: a meager 4.1 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
215
Passing Yards