Week 16 Player Props: Passing Yards for Brock Purdy from EV Insight

Brock PurdyPassing Yards

Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-136/+104).

The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-136) after it opened @ 247.5 (-114).

Pros

The Baltimore Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
Brock Purdy’s 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a substantial improvement in his throwing prowess over last season’s 151.0 figure.
Brock Purdy’s throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.4% to 70.1%.
Brock Purdy’s 9.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year indicates a remarkable progression in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 8.0% rate.

Cons

This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The projections expect the 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to throw 32.4 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.

Projection

THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards