Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Brock PurdyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 16
49ers vs. Ravens
Right now, Brock Purdy’s passing yards prop is set at 249.5 yards (-136/+104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 249.5 (-136) after it opened @ 247.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has been something of pass funnel this year, inducing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the league (40.0 per game) this year.
- Brock Purdy’s 267.0 adjusted passing yards per game this season marks a substantial improvement in his throwing prowess over last season’s 151.0 figure.
- Brock Purdy’s throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 66.4% to 70.1%.
- Brock Purdy’s 9.72 adjusted yards-per-target this year indicates a remarkable progression in his throwing efficiency over last year’s 8.0% rate.
Cons
- This game’s spread indicates a rushing game script for the 49ers, who are favored by 6.5 points.
- The projections expect the 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The model projects the 49ers to run the fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
- The 49ers have called the fewest plays in football this year, averaging just 52.5 plays per game.
- Our trusted projections expect Brock Purdy to throw 32.4 passes in this week’s contest, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
255
Passing Yards
255
Passing Yards
