First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
Now with Monday Night Football added.
Jared Goff had the No. 1 game of Week 15 by DYAR. That’s what happens when you throw for 494 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions. One thing we know about Goff is that he loves to throw in the middle of the field. Nobody loves dig routes as much as Goff. Goff led all quarterbacks this week with 131 DYAR on middle passes, but you may be surprised to learn that overall he’s not as successful throwing to the middle of the field as you might expect!
Goff has thrown 32% of his passes listed as middle of the field. That’s the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. Derek Carr is second at 28% and the league average is 22%. However, Goff is only third in the league in passing DYAR on middle passes, in part because he’s not in the top 10 of DVOA. His DVOA of 51.6% on these passes is not much ahead of the league average of 43.9%.
Goff’s DVOA is more impressive than the league average both to the left (45.7% vs. league 19.7%) and the right (46.8% vs. league 11.3%).
You probably know which quarterback throws the least in the middle of the field. Of course, it is Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles, who only throws there 13% of the time. What’s ironic is that Hurts has a better DVOA than Goff on these passes! I guess Hurts really picks his spots to actually throw in the middle of the field. Hurts only threw five passes listed as “middle” this week but all five were complete including two touchdowns in the red zone plus a 22-yard pass to DeVonta Smith in the fourth quarter as the Eagles were killing the clock.
The best quarterback in the middle of the field? By total value (DYAR) it is Joe Burrow and by value per play (DVOA) it is Russell Wilson. The worst is Will Levis, the only quarterback with negative DYAR or DVOA on passes listed as the middle of the field.
Here are the top 10 quarterbacks in DVOA to the middle of the field:
| Best DVOA to Middle of Field, Weeks 1-15 2024 (before MNF) | |||||
| Player | Team | DYAR | DVOA | Pass | Pct |
| Russell Wilson | PIT | 256 | 110.1% | 38 | 16% |
| Lamar Jackson | BAL | 632 | 95.4% | 97 | 24% |
| Josh Allen | BUF | 343 | 71.1% | 70 | 16% |
| Joe Burrow | CIN | 667 | 70.1% | 123 | 23% |
| Caleb Williams | CHI | 371 | 68.0% | 82 | 19% |
| Trevor Lawrence | JAX | 305 | 67.0% | 65 | 23% |
| Brock Purdy | SF | 478 | 63.6% | 105 | 27% |
| Derek Carr | NO | 357 | 58.0% | 80 | 28% |
| Aaron Rodgers | NYJ | 478 | 57.1% | 110 | 22% |
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | 195 | 56.0% | 48 | 13% |
And here’s a look at the best and worst players of Week 15 by DYAR:
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