Week 15 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight

Derrick HenryRushing Yards

Right now, Derrick Henry’s rushing yards prop is set at 100.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 100.5 (-135) after it opened @ 98.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tennessee Titans as the 6th-most run-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) right now with a 42.9% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Derrick Henry to accumulate 23.9 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among RBs.
Derrick Henry has earned 85.0% of his team’s rush attempts this year, placing him in the 99th percentile among running backs.
Derrick Henry has been among the top RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a stellar 3.69 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 91st percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense owns the worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, conceding 5.61 yards-per-carry.

Cons

The Titans are a 3-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Tennessee Titans have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 52.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Derrick Henry has run for many fewer yards per game (90.0) this year than he did last year (105.0).

Projection

THE BLITZ
104
Rushing Yards